ECONOMICAL EXPECTATIONS WILL DETERMINE THE LOCAL ELECTIONS
IUE Rector Prof. Dr. Attila Sezgin made the opening speech of the seminar and said “I believe that before the upcoming local elections, this seminar will provide a scientific view to the preferences of the electors and the election atmosphere since today.”
Sabancı University lecturer Prof. Dr. Ersin Kalaycıoğlu stated that the elector profile of Turkey had changed since the mid 1990s and directed to center-right. He said “In our field research that covered the years 1990-2002 the rate of extreme right and extreme left was 40%. The central electors’ rate which was nearly 50 in 1995 moved to right. A transition from the center to the right is experienced in 2002 and an electorate that pushes 60% level is formed here. The biggest difference of this electorate from the former one is that when it changes its preference it is again in favor of right. When we look at 2005, 2006, 2007, the left side is in 18% and right side is 50-60%. The first factor in choosing a party for the elector is the economical expectation, later party and later other factors.”
Ege University lecturer Assoc. Prof. Tanju Tosun stated that when the surveys for 29 March Local Election Results were analyzed it would not surprise anyone and said “If we analyze the cities with different arguments like İzmir, I think the elections will not surprise us. The votes in İzmir will contain different indicators since the President Erdoğan insists to have İzmir and CHP sees it as a castle does not want to give it. In this election, especially by taking the General Provincial Council elections as basis may bear new expansions in power and opposition. If AKP will have votes less than 40% and if CHP will experience a decline of 4%, the discourses and enforcements towards the management of the parties will be in effect. DP will have the answer of the question whether it is a party of a region or a general party.”
Akşam Newspaper Aegean Region Representative Nedim Atilla impressed the attendees of the conference with his predictions about the elections in İzmir. He supported that CHP will win the elections in İzmir even with a minor difference. Atilla stated that this is because of the elector structure of İzmir and said "Even though the emphasis on secularism is less in this election, it will be on the foreground in İzmir. The lecturer speakers presented some results about the elector profiles but ı would like to state what will happen in elections in İzmir with the freedom of being a journalist. The Metropolitan Municipality will be CHP’s consewuently Kocaoğlu's. I believe CHP will win the elections in Konak, Karşıyaka and Narlıdere. the latest surveys show this too. But we have 22 days and some things may change. In Gaziemir and Karabağlar, AKP will win. In Güzelbahçe DSP is leading. In Bayraklı and Bornova, CHP-AKP and MHP compete. In Buca, the election is still ambiguous. Of course, all these are the results of the latest surveys and our observations.”
At the end of the seminar IUE Rector Prof. Dr. Attila Sezgin presented plaquets to the speakers.
